What is the definition of a failed stress-test exercise? If you're an investment banker, the answer is simple: one that doesn't lead to any lucrative mandates to raise bank equity.

On that basis, the European exercise, whose results are due Friday, looks doomed. Finance ministers from several countries under the most scrutiny, including Greece and Spain, have been quick to declare their banking systems sound. Any capital raising seems likely to be limited to smaller savings banks that can't or wouldn't be able to raise public equity and would have to rely on government capital injections instead.